【Wdoodoo每周纸浆报告】淡季需求疲软使纸浆和纸张价格下滑。
Pulp prices continued to drift lower this week. The average price of softwood pulp stood at around RMB 4,875 per ton, down RMB 81 per ton from the previous period. Hardwood pulp remained relatively steady, with its spot average price at RMB 4,498 per ton, a drop of RMB 22 per ton week on week. Demand stayed sluggish in the off-season, and paper mills showed little willingness to restock. High softwood pulp inventories proved difficult to digest, while rising short positions on futures weighed on hardwood pulp prices.
1. Bearish macro sentiment weighs on markets; commodity index fluctuates
U.S. non-farm payrolls and PMI data for May both beat expectations, pushing the market’s probability of a Fed rate hike within the year up to 70%. Last Tuesday, the U.S. announced plans to impose additional tariffs of roughly 10% on goods from 60 economies. A stronger U.S. dollar put pressure on commodity markets. While geopolitical tensions in the Middle East eased, prospects for U.S.-Iran negotiations remain uncertain. Shipping activity in key waterways stayed subdued, leaving energy prices vulnerable to sharp swings. The Wenhua Commodity Index moved sideways amid market divergence, with long funds continuing to exit the market.
2. Ample softwood pulp supply; hardwood pulp quotations softening
China’s total pulp imports reached 3.218 million tons in April, down 2.4% month on month but up 11.2% year on year. Cumulative imports for the January-April period hit 12.556 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%. Bleached softwood pulp imports totalled 910,000 tons in April, rising 11.7% month on month and 20.1% year on year.
3. Sluggish sales of finished paper; low willingness for raw material restocking
4. High inventories cap price upside
As of June 4, monitored inventory at major ports stood at 2.29 million tons, down 20,000 tons month on month but still at a historically high level for this time of year. The high proportion of softwood pulp in total inventories continues to suppress prices.
Overall Outlook，Bearish macro sentiment, elevated port inventories and weak restocking appetite among paper mills, combined with falling futures on increased short positions, keep spot pulp prices under pressure. Bearish sentiment dominates the short term. That said, current price levels feature relatively low valuation, and the upcoming peak restocking period in the second half of the year makes aggressive short selling less appealing.
