【Wdoodoo每周棉花报告】宏观经济分化加剧，棉市缺乏利好驱动因素
Cotton prices fell first then rebounded last week, with the overall price center moving down. ZCE Cotton CF09 settled at RMB 15,765/ton, down RMB 150 week-on-week; 3128B cotton spot closed at RMB 16,935/ton, a weekly drop of RMB 135. Mounting global tightening expectations and a lack of bullish industrial catalysts kept cotton range-bound.
Contrary to market expectations, the USDA made no material revisions to U.S. cotton supply-demand balances for the new marketing year. It only lifted U.S. cotton export estimates for MY25/26 marginally, trimming ending stocks by 43,000 tons MoM to 806,000 tons.
3. Off-Season Orders Slump Markedly, Yet Baseline Demand Offers Support
Overall yarn operating rates and 100% cotton grey fabric utilization rates have stabilized, underpinned by rigid downstream demand. Lower cotton prices have boosted trading activity in physical cotton markets.
Nevertheless, the downstream off-season is clearly evident. Spinning mills continue to build up inventories of cotton and yarn, while composite staple fiber fabric stocks keep accumulating. Yarn mill profit margins are squeezed amid sharply weaker order books, leaving textile firms highly cautious about restocking.
Separately, the Trump administration has proposed a new tariff plan that could impose an extra 12.5% duty on textile products, stoking market risk aversion.
Comprehensive Outlook，Global tightening expectations remain elevated, and the U.S. plan for new textile tariffs weighs on commodity sentiment. However, tentative detente in the Middle East may ease recession-driven bearish trades. Weather bullish bets have cooled, and downstream consumption has entered its seasonal lull, leaving limited bullish industrial catalysts. Still, baseline rigid demand provides mild support.
Key Monitoring Factors This Week
1.Sustainability of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East
2.Drought conditions across U.S. cotton belts
3.Downstream end-consumption performance
